# ext — Election Cycle Rollover (± 30 days of a Swedish election anchor) > **Bounded-context module.** Loaded by `news-election-cycle.md` and any future cycle-aware workflow. Active **only** when `$ARTICLE_DATE` is within ± 30 days of a Swedish election anchor (next is **2026-09-13**). Outside the window this module is a no-op — its checks short-circuit and emit a single line: `cycle-rollover: window inactive (T-NN days)`. The next Swedish general election is **2026-09-13**. This module encodes the precise file-rename + content-carry-forward + PIR-archival procedure that converts an in-flight `election-cycle/current/` artifact set into the `election-cycle/next/` baseline once the registry's `electionCycleAnchor` flips. The same procedure repeats for the 2030-09-08 anchor and for every subsequent quadrennial anchor, parameterised by `analysis/article-types.json → electionCycles`. --- ## 1 — Activation predicate ```bash ELECTION_DATE=$(jq -r '.electionCycles.next.start' analysis/article-types.json) TODAY="$ARTICLE_DATE" DAYS_DELTA=$(( ($(date -d "$TODAY" +%s) - $(date -d "$ELECTION_DATE" +%s)) / 86400 )) if [ "${DAYS_DELTA#-}" -gt 30 ]; then echo "cycle-rollover: window inactive (T${DAYS_DELTA} days)" >&2 exit 0 fi ``` When active, the rollover module hooks into the analysis pipeline at three points: 1. **Pre-flight** (`03-data-download.md`) — locate the most recent `election-cycle/current/` artifact set in the predecessor manifest and load it as the carry-forward baseline. 2. **Post-Pass-2** (`04-analysis-pipeline.md`) — apply the rename + carry-forward procedure §3. 3. **Pre-aggregate** (`06-article-generation.md`) — emit a `cycle-rollover-report.md` summarising the conversion. ### Anchor-coverage hard rule When `cycle_anchor=both`, both `election-cycle/current/` and `election-cycle/next/` are expected outputs. Skipping an anchor because of runtime pressure is not allowed. If an anchor is intentionally skipped, `methodology-reflection.md` must include an **Anchor coverage decision** entry citing a formal reason: - `cycle-rollover-window-inactive` (predicate outside ±30-day window and operator explicitly selected a single anchor), or - `cycle-rollover-window-transition` (T+31 → T+45 freeze semantics from §2 table). `time-budget`, `timeout`, or equivalent wording is never a valid anchor-skip reason. --- ## 2 — Cycle-anchor flip rule The `electionCycleAnchor` field in the registry is **not** automatically rotated. Operators flip it via a dedicated PR after the official Riksdagen has been seated (typically T+45 to T+60 days post-election, after government formation negotiations). The rollover module covers the **bridge period** (T-30 → T+45) when both anchors are simultaneously authoritative: | Days from election | `cycle_anchor` semantics | Rollover behaviour | |--------------------|--------------------------|---------------------| | T-30 → T-1 | `current` cycle still authoritative; `next` cycle pre-positioned | Both anchors generated; `next/` artifacts marked `[provisional pre-election]` | | T+0 (election day) | Vote count in progress | Single-run emergency: no PR until results lock; reuses `realtime-monitor` workflow instead | | T+1 → T+30 | Vote count locked; government formation in progress | Both anchors generated; `current/` artifacts add a `# 📜 Mandate retrospective` H1; `next/` upgraded from provisional | | T+31 → T+45 | Government formed | Single-run: only `next/` is regenerated; `current/` is **frozen** as historical record | --- ## 3 — File-rename + content-carry-forward procedure > 🛠 **File-write contract**: every archival write (`analysis/cycles/2022-2026/mandate-scorecard.md`, `ku-reprimands.md`, `cohesion-trajectory.md`), every PIR carry-forward append to the new-cycle `intelligence-assessment.md`, and the T+0 `cycle-trajectory.md` rewind MUST be performed with the `edit` tool. **Never** use `python3`, `node -e`, `sed -i`, `echo … > file`, `tee file`, or unquoted heredocs (`< **Implementation status.** `scripts/cycle-rollover.ts` is **planned future work** and is **not yet implemented in this repository**. Until that script lands, the steps below are operator-run/manual workflow instructions; election-window runs MUST NOT invoke `scripts/cycle-rollover.ts` and MUST NOT auto-create `analysis/cycles/` directories. The `analysis/cycles/` archival paths referenced in §3.2 are the **target layout** for the future script; operators performing manual rollover should `mkdir -p analysis/cycles//` before copying files. ### 3.1 Filename aliases The rollover preserves the canonical-filename pattern already used elsewhere in the repo (e.g. `historical-baseline.md` ↔ `historical-parallels.md`): | Pre-rollover filename | Post-rollover filename | Behaviour | |-----------------------|------------------------|-----------| | `election-2026-analysis.md` | `election-cycle-analysis.md` | **Aliased**; both names map to the same artifact via `FILENAME_ALIASES` in `scripts/render-lib/aggregator/order.ts`. When both exist the aggregator prefers `election-2026-analysis.md` (first in `AGGREGATION_ORDER`). Post-rollover, workflows write `election-cycle-analysis.md` as the cycle-agnostic canonical name; write only one name per run to avoid the dedup ambiguity. | | `cycle-trajectory.md` | `cycle-trajectory.md` | Unchanged filename; **content** rewinds to T+0 baseline (see §3.3). | | `intelligence-assessment.md` | `intelligence-assessment.md` | PIRs prefixed by `[CYCLE-2022-2026]` are **archived** (see §4); new PIRs prefixed `[CYCLE-2026-2030]` are seeded. | ### 3.2 Carry-forward content A small, fixed subset of analysis carries forward from the closing cycle into the opening cycle: - **Mandate-fulfilment scorecard** → archived under `analysis/cycles/2022-2026/mandate-scorecard.md` (one-time write); referenced by the new cycle's `historical-parallels.md` as the closest precedent. - **KU reprimands ledger** → archived under `analysis/cycles/2022-2026/ku-reprimands.md`. - **Coalition cohesion trajectory** → archived under `analysis/cycles/2022-2026/cohesion-trajectory.md`. - **Open PIRs flagged as `inheritsCycle: true`** → carried forward verbatim with provenance preserved. ### 3.3 Cycle-trajectory rewind `cycle-trajectory.md` for the new cycle starts with a **deliberately empty T+0 baseline**: - ICD 203 BLUF: "Cycle 2026-2030 baseline established. No mandate trajectory observable yet (T+0)." - WEP for every horizon band: `roughly even` (cannot reasonably be otherwise without 2+ years of evidence). - Three forward indicators seeded: (a) first government statement / regeringsförklaring, (b) BP autumn-2026 fiscal stance, (c) first KU referral. Subsequent runs accrete evidence onto this baseline; the ICD 203 BLUF strengthens organically. --- ## 4 — PIR archival Every PIR in `pir-status.json` declared during the closing cycle is rotated: ```jsonc // before flip: { "id": "PIR-1-coalition-stability", "cycle": "2022-2026", "status": "open", "obsolescenceDate": "2026-09-13" } // after flip: { "id": "PIR-1-coalition-stability", "cycle": "2022-2026", "status": "archived", "archivedReason": "cycle-rollover-2026-09-13", "successor": "PIR-1-coalition-stability-2026-2030" } ``` PIRs marked `inheritsCycle: true` (the small set that survive the cycle boundary, e.g. PIR-7 `Democratic Norms`) get a successor PIR seeded automatically with `parent` linkage to the archived predecessor. --- ## 5 — Operator runbook The flip from `current` to `next` is a **CEO-approved Normal change** under `Change_Management.md`. `scripts/cycle-rollover.ts` is **not yet implemented**, so the rollover is currently performed manually in the PR: 1. Bump `analysis/article-types.json` `electionCycles.current` to the closed-out cycle and `next` to the new "next" placeholder. 2. Perform a manual dry-run review in the PR description: list every `analysis/election-cycle/current/` artifact that will be carried forward into `analysis/election-cycle/next/`, every cycle-scoped artifact that will be archived, and every PIR successor that will be seeded for entries marked `inheritsCycle: true`. 3. Apply the rollover manually: archive cycle-scoped PIRs with `status: "archived"`, `archivedReason: "cycle-rollover-"`, and `successor` where applicable; seed successor PIRs with `parent` linkage; and carry forward the `next/` baseline files into the new cycle state described in this module. 4. Update `analysis/methodologies/electoral-domain-methodology.md` cycle table. 5. Append the activation row to `analysis/cycles/rollover-log.md` using the format in §7 (operator must `mkdir -p analysis/cycles/` if the directory does not yet exist — see §3 implementation-status note). 6. Open the PR; `tests/article-types.test.ts > election cycle coherence` MUST pass. The whole sequence is intended to be idempotent — re-applying the same manual rollover on already-rotated state should result in no further content changes. Once `scripts/cycle-rollover.ts` ships, steps 2–3 are expected to collapse into `--dry-run` / `--apply` invocations. --- ## 6 — Out of scope - **The election day itself** (T+0) is covered by `news-realtime-monitor.md`, not this module. - **Per-document Family-E coverage** of the elected MPs (the new 349 ledamöter) is bootstrapped by `news-monthly-review.md` runs T+30 onward, not by this module. - **Coalition-formation prediction** before election day uses `news-election-cycle.md → next` anchor with `[provisional pre-election]` marker; after election day the anchor moves to `current` once the operator flips the registry. --- ## 7 — Audit trail Every activation of this module appends a one-line audit row to `analysis/cycles/rollover-log.md`: ``` 2026-09-13 | cycle-rollover | activated | from=2022-2026 to=2026-2030 | run-id= ``` This file is append-only and serves as the historical record of every cycle transition the platform has handled.